5 Stats that Determine the Real Estate Market

housingPeople often ask me, “How’s the market?” The answer is clearly subjective, but careful analysis of the following statistics leads to at least an educated subjective judgment:

1.Value

Values or prices are usually expressed in terms of how the median price of closed sales compare year-to-year or month-to-month. Because the seasons strongly affect home sales, I recommend considering the median prices for any given month compared to the same month a year ago:

  • In April 2012, the median selling price of single family homes in the greater Boston area fell 2.5%, and condominium prices were up 6%, compared to April  2011.

 2. Volume

The most relevant statistic for sales volume (the number of homes sold) is the number of homes sold compared to the same month a year ago.

  •  The number of single family homes sold in the greater Boston area was up 11%, while condos were up 18.5%.

 3. Inventory

Take a look at how many homes are on the market compared to a year ago.

  •  The inventory of single family homes was down 10% in April, and for condos the inventory was down a whopping 30%.

 4. Days on Market

Still relevant but not quite as important, are the figures for “days on market and “supply.” This is the average time it takes a home to go under contract.

  •  The average days on market for real estate in the greater Boston area stayed relatively stable, declining two days from 122 to 120 days for April 2012 compared to April 2011. For condos, the time fell 19 days from 117 days to 98 days.

 5. Supply

The “supply” is the number of homes on the market divided by the monthly rate that they are selling. For example, if there are 50 homes on the market and 120 homes sold over the past 12 months (an average of 10 per month), there is a 5 month supply. Most experts consider somewhere between 7.5 and 8.5 months supply of homes a fairly balanced market.

  •  The supply of single family homes was down about 10% from 7.9 months in April 2011 to just 6.4 months of supply in April 2012. There was a 4.8 month supply of condominiums available in April, down sharply from April of one year ago when there was an 8.2 month supply.

 If you can get the answer to these statistical questions for the geographic area (neighborhood, town, city, state, or country) that you are interested in, you should have a pretty clear picture of what the real estate market is doing. So how’s the greater Boston area market doing? My analysis is that the greater Boston area is experiencing a transition to more of a seller’s market. The supply is shrinking and demand appears to be growing, pushing prices up and making it easier for sellers to sell. What’s your analysis?

The figures for this post can be found here on the Great Boston Association of Realtors site.

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What is ENERGY STAR?

Energy-StarENERGY STAR is a joint program of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy designed to help consumers save money, and protect the environment through energy-efficient products and practices.

In 1992, the (EPA) introduced ENERGY STAR as a voluntary labeling program designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Computers and monitors were the first labeled products. By 1995, the EPA had expanded the label to residential heating and cooling equipment. The ENERGY STAR label is now on major appliances, lighting, home electronics, and has been expanded to cover new homes and commercial and industrial buildings.

Whole Home ENERGY STAR Rating

For an entire home to be labeled ENERGY STAR, it must be built by an ENERGY STAR builder-partner to meet strict guidelines for energy efficiency set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. These homes are at least 15% more energy efficient than homes built to the 2004 International Residential Code (IRC), and include additional energy-saving features that typically make them 20–30% more efficient than standard homes.

The ENERGY STAR label is rapidly becoming more of a selling feature. Home buyers are now very conscious of a potential home’s energy efficiency. The Multiple Listing Service has specific sections where ENERGY STAR rated systems and appliances can be highlighted so that buyers can easily determine if there is ENERGY STAR rated equipment in the home they are considering. However, as the whole-house Energy Star rating is fairly new, it doesn’t yet appear often.  As more and more homes get the designation, you will see it more often and consumers will look for the whole home rating.

The ‘No Cost Energy Assessment’ & Benefits

Locally, the ENERGY STAR program is partnered with a program called Mass Save. This initiative is sponsored by several local energy companies and administered by a company called Conservation Services Group. Through Mass Save you can schedule a no-cost “Energy Assessment” on your home or even your rental property. Depending on the results, homeowners are then eligible for an instant rebate of up to $2,000 for 75% of the cost of installing insulation, and a zero percent interest loan on new heating equipment. The website also contains a wealth of information on saving energy as well as information like current tax credits available for energy efficient home improvements.

As energy costs continue to rise, taking advantage of the Mass Save program, and looking for ENERGY STAR rated appliances will not only benefit you in the short term, but add value to your home when it comes time to sell.

Resources:  www.masssave.com, www.energystar.gov

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Has your home’s value decreased? Buy a more expensive one!

trading-upIf your home has decreased in value and you are thinking about selling it, it’s hard to see any silver lining. However, if you have other resources and have been thinking about buying a larger home, this is, surprisingly, the best time to “trade up.”

Here’s why…

I recommend that homeowners consider home ownership a long term investment in the residential real estate market. Most people plan to “stay invested,” buying and selling several homes in their lifetimes, or stay in the same home for decades. Most people enter the residential market when they first buy a home. They leave the market when they sell their last home or leave their last residence to heirs. People might trade up into a more expensive home or make a lateral move or two to something of similar value before downsizing in retirement as “empty nesters.” If you don’t sell your home and completely step out of the housing market by renting for a long time or traveling the world for few years, you stay invested. Similarly, you are no longer invested if sell your home and move to a completely different market, like moving from Boston to Florida. In these cases, you might want to carefully consider your relative position in each market.

Here is an example of how trading up could look when the value of your home is down:

2006: The value of your home (either just purchased or not) – Home A: $500,000

2012: Your home has decreased in value 15%. Current value Home A: $425,000

2012: You purchase your dream home – Home B: $750,000

2027: 15 years later the market has recovered and gone up a total of 30% since 2012

The value of your home – Home B: $975,000

The value of your old home – Home A: $552,500

You benefit in the long run, because you purchased the more expensive home in a lower market. Your home is down today, but the more expensive home is down more!

The point is that it doesn’t make sense to put off selling your home, because you can’t get what you want for it. Sell when it makes sense in your life to be in a different home. Your investment in the residential real estate market will take care of itself in the long term.

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A Different Type Of Tear-Down: Court Orders Million Dollar Marblehead Manse Demolished For Zoning Violation

One Very Expensive Lesson

This is a human interest story that contains a good reminder for those of us who often believe that when it comes to dealing with certain authorities, it is better to ask for forgiveness than permission. In this case, that strategy proved disasterous. I have posted it here courtesy of Attorney Marc Canner’s and Attorney Rich Vestein’s Massachusetts Real Estate Law Blog.

marblehead-home-teardownAfter a 16 year long saga, wealthy Marblehead mansion owner Wayne Johnson’s battle to save his house from a court-ordered wrecking ball has come to an end. The underlying legal saga is convoluted and complicated, but the end result was swift and destructive — the million dollar mansion is now rubble.

Johnson’s battle started in 1995 when he recorded a plan dividing his land into two lots. One lot contained an existing single-family dwelling. The second lot contained a garage.johnson-tear-down The house lot complied with all zoning dimensional requirements, but the garage lot didn’t comply with lot width requirements. The Building Inspector incorrectly determined that the garage lot complied with all applicable zoning requirements.

Johnson’s neighbors appealed the Building Inspector’s decision, arguing that the new house would greatly diminish their valuable ocean views. The local zoning board allowed the issuance of a building permit. After the building permit issued, the plaintiffs filed an appeal in Land Court and asked for an injunction to prevent construction on the garage lot. The Land Court judge warned Johnson that proceeding with construction was at his peril. In a decision by another judge in May, 2000, the court ordered the building permit to be revoked. However, the court ruled that the house could remain in place while Johnson attempted to obtain appropriate zoning relief.

Johnson, however, was unable to obtain zoning relief. After several unsuccessful appeals, the Land Court ordered Johnson to remove the house by October 4, 2010. Johnson failed to comply with that order, and the neighbors attempted to hold Johnson in contempt. With the threat of contempt and possible jail looming, Johnson finally threw in the towel.

The Land Court ruling can be read here:
Schey v. Johnson

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Converting to Investment Property

Sell or Rent HouseRenting Your Home vs. Selling Your Home

Many of the sales I handle are in urban neighborhoods where people consider keeping their condominium as an investment property instead of selling it. This is more common lately as many homeowners become painfully aware that they cannot sell their home for the price they want. They naturally consider holding and renting the property until the value of their home recovers. However, if a home’s value is much higher than what was paid for it, this strategy has serious tax implications.

Capital Gains Tax Rules  – The Basics

According to Federal and State (Massachusetts) tax rules, gains in value are tax free up to certain limits for people who lived in the home as a primary residence for two out of the last five years. A gain of up to $500,000 for a couple or $250,000 for an individual is tax free when you sell the home. Basically, if you rent your home instead of selling it right away, you have a three year window to sell and avoid paying capital gains tax. Gains on homes not sold in the three year window are taxed at 15% Federal and 5% State. Another option is to keep the property for life and pass it on to your heirs. A discussion of this option is complicated and beyond the scope of this post.

The Three Year Plan

If you hold onto a property and rent it, you will have to deal with one unpredictable variable – tenants. In my experience, the presence of tenants usually compromises your ability to get the highest possible price for the property. Tenants are not usually the best decorators and may not have the highest standards of cleanliness. Plus, it is extremely difficult to make improvements with tenants in the unit. To get the highest possible price, you may have to wait for the tenants to leave, make improvements, and then thoroughly stage the unit starting from scratch. With tenants in your unit, you could get anywhere from 3 to 5% off the highest possible price. The discount may be even greater if the home shows badly, or the tenants make showings difficult or are problematic. Being a landlord carries significant risk.

These costs and headaches must be considered against any expected future increase in the value of your condominium. If you decide to sell immediately, many of these costs can be avoided. There is no danger of a tenant causing wear and tear or making showings difficult. If your home is in good condition and well-decorated, you can probably prepare it for sale without making costly cosmetic improvements and can stage it using many of your own furnishings. Ultimately, you may decide to rent your condominium, but it’s important to be aware of what you’re getting into.

Ask The Tough Questions!

Real Estate ConceptThis week’s post is courtesy of negotiation consultant and blogger, Chad Ellis.

During a recent family visit my father reminded me of an unusual house near where I grew up.  It was a lovely house with a good-sized yard next to a pond.  Perfect for a family, and many families happily bought it.  In fact, the house was bought by a new family almost once a year, for what always seemed a bargain price.  Most families sold the house within a year of moving in.

Nothing was wrong with the house, per se.  The problem was that the yard and pond were the summer home for a large flock of geese.  During the warm season they would arrive and spend the next few months defecating all over the yard, turning what looked like a dream into something quite less pleasant.  When the geese had gone, the new owners would look at their mess of a yard, clean things up as best they could, and put their lovely house on the market.

In my last post we discussed the importance of information.  Clearly the buyers of this home lacked a key piece of information.  But why?  Buying a home is a big deal — for most of us it’s the biggest purchase we’ll ever make.  Paying 10% more than you have to is a huge loss as is buying a house you decide you can’t keep.  Even without the Internet making research fairly easy, it would have been relatively easy for home buyers to learn about the history of the Goose House.  So why didn’t they?

In my experience, there are two reasons people enter negotiations without key information.  First, we don’t make a list of what information we’d like to have.  Second, we become extremely reluctant to ask questions.

If anything, this problem escalates with major purchases.  The same person who will check movie reviews before putting $10 and an evening at risk will do little or no preparation when buying a house or negotiating salary at a new position.  Having more at stake sometimes makes us less willing to prepare, perhaps because it’s more frightening to admit a lack of knowledge when it comes to something important.  If this sounds like you, make extra certain that you commit to asking the sorts of questions we discussed last time.  Then, when you consider about how you might go about acquiring that information, be aware of the options that make you uncomfortable — and spell out the costs and potential gains of that option.  An experienced buyer’s agent you trust can help you to identify the tough questions you need to ask and will know how to ask and where to look to get the answers.

If the buyers of the Goose House had done that, they might have learned about the house’s history…and avoided a costly mistake.

Chad Ellis
Check out my Negotiations Blog:
www.negotiatewithchad.blogspot.com

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Inspecting Your Home Inspector

inspection2In my last post, I recommended a useful context to make home inspection issues easier to negotiate for both parties. Buyers, however, still need to make sure that they get a thorough and fair home inspection. Home inspectors are subject to a license requirement, a code of ethics, and standards of practice from the Board of Registration of Home Inspectors, but their results still vary widely. In my experience, multiple home inspectors inspecting the same property are likely to find very different issues. How can you assess your home inspector?

Home inspectors often fall into three different categories. First, there is the highly critical inspector. Real estate agents often refer to these inspectors as “alarmist,” while many consumers merely consider them “tough.” A highly critical inspector can be a good choice if the buyer can maintain perspective. If you are somewhat savvy about home construction issues and not easily alarmed, this type of inspector may be fine for you. However, be wary of the home inspector who thinks it is his or her job to be negative. A home inspector who tells you the roof is “fully depreciated,” but fails to give you an opinion on its condition given its age, is doing you a disservice. A roof that is past its normal life span, might still be in reasonably good condition and last a few more years.

The second category of home inspectors falls on the opposite end of the spectrum.  These inspectors tend to minimize issues and accentuate the positive. Real estate agents often regard these inspectors as “easy.” Beware the inspector who just gushes nice things about the home. He is mostly trying to stay in good graces with the real estate agent and doesn’t want to offend anyone.  If you find yourself in the middle of a home inspection with this type of inspector ask him to be more critical and to provide you details and specifics about the systems he is inspecting.

The vast majority of home inspectors fall into the last category. These are the home inspectors that real estate agents regard as “fair.” They will give you a reasonably balanced assessment of the home as whole, yet still uncover critical issues. The key to getting the most value from this type of inspector is twofold. First, ask a lot of questions and figure out what the inspector knows and doesn’t know about the systems he is inspecting, and his experience with those systems. Second, if he finds any issues of more than minor concern, hire a true expert to take another look at those issues. For example, if the inspector raises concerns about the roof, hire a roofer to look it over.  This last tip is important no matter which category your inspector falls into.

Never stop being a good consumer. Hire a home inspector who comes referred by someone you trust, ask lots of questions, and don’t forget to actually read the report.  If you don’t understand something about the report, ask more questions. For more information about home inspectors, click here.

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Home Inspections – A Context Shift

inspectionIn my experience, the home inspection is at the fulcrum of the residential real estate transaction. If a deal is going to sour, it is likely due to the home inspection. Although not required by laws or regulations, home buyers in Massachusetts almost always have a home inspection and the right to cancel the transaction if they are dissatisfied with the results.

Most buyers start the buying process thinking that the home inspector will find all the issues including what is not functioning properly and what may need attention in the near future. Buyers assume they’ll have the agent negotiate with the sellers to fix the problems or compensate the buyer in some way.

Sellers usually have a different perspective. They often feel that the issues are to be  reasonably expected given the age and general condition of the home or should have been obvious to the buyer from the start. In the sellers’ minds, the house comes “as-is” and the price has already been negotiated. After all, the sellers have lived with the issues for some time.

These very different approaches can make for difficult negotiations over issues that actually don’t involve a great deal of money. The solution is a different context for the home inspection.

Buyers will benefit most by using the home inspection to determine whether the home generally meets their expectations and if they want to proceed with the purchase. It is best if buyers focus on specific problems that were unknown prior to negotiating the sale price.  What doesn’t function properly given the age of the renovation, or the home, and the general condition of the house? Reasonable wear and tear is to be expected.  If an item is past its life expectancy and still works, then it is actually functioning better than expected.

The buyers and their agent should present the seller with a reasonable dollar amount for fixing the problems (I generally recommend against asking the sellers to make repairs because the buyers will have to inspect the work and this opens up a new set of problems). The sellers ought to approach the buyers’ requests essentially the same way. If the buyers could reasonably have expected the item to function properly, and it doesn’t, then the buyers request for compensation is reasonable.

There will still be complicated issues to resolve around what is reasonableness. However, if buyers and sellers approach the home inspection from the same context, those issues should be easier to resolve.

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Feng Shui – One Agent’s Perspective

A few weeks ago I was walking along Osborne Street near my home in Brookline. I looked up and noticed this large house facing me from the end of Osborne Street.

While the house itself looks great, I particularly noticed how amazing it felt to look down Osborne and see this magnificent house sitting handsomely at the end. It occurred to me that having one’s entrance looking down the street would be considered excellent Feng Shui. I remembered that the developers of the Mandarin Hotel and Residences in the Back Bay had, at great expense and at the last minute, situated the Hotel entrance to look down Fairfield Street in order to improve its Feng Shui.  They even had to move the street lights to make it all work. See this Boston.com article to read the full story.

Feng Shui, literally translated as “wind-water” is an ancient Chinese system of aesthetics  that uses various principles of energy, design, architecture, and other disciplines that work together to improve life. In the context of residential real estate, it is mostly an art related to improving design and function. It is not really about aesthetics (although aesthetics still play a role), but rather about energy and balance so that one’s life works better. In my experience selling homes, I have had clients with varying degrees of concern for and knowledge about how a potential home measures up according to Feng Shui principles. I have also had a couple of clients hire Feng Shui consultants to evaluate their potential home, and I hired one myself to suggest improvements to my last home. I have learned a few things in this process. These are NOT in any way any kind of basic principles but rather just some interesting odds and ends I have picked up.

  1. Real estate agents are generally not that happy when their clients want to evaluate a home’s Feng Shui. They often see it as just another obstacle that may have to be overcome. Fortunately, this is not my perspective.
  2. Rectangular construction is good.  Corners are good. Anything curvy can be problematic. The reasons for this are somewhat complicated and are related to energy and balance.
  3. When you are considering a condo or apartment on more than one floor you should be concerned if your upper floor is not situated entirely over your lower floor. A floor plan that falls into this category is known as the “Philly Duplex.”  These homes occupy half of one floor and then all of an adjacent floor.  The reason for this concern relates again to balance and also to healthy boundaries between your home and your neighbor’s.
  4. Bed placement is crucial. Make sure you place the bed so that you can see the entrance to the bedroom from the bed, but it is not directly in front of you. I did not adhere to this principle at one point and my bedroom always felt wrong – now I know why.
  5. Many, if not most, “problems” can be mitigated enough to alleviate major concerns without reconstruction or spending a great deal of money. You can vastly improve the Feng Shui of your home working with the right colors, proper furniture placement, plants, screens and mirrors, as well as just de-cluttering. There is also a huge amount of information out there and it is fairly easy to find and understand.

Do you have any good Feng Shui stories or principles you would like to share?
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Tub/Shower Combo vs. the Walk-in Shower

As with my last post, this question may not be of immediate concern to you, but it is likely to come up sometime in the future if you are a homeowner.

If your bathroom needs remodeling or you are putting in an entirely new bathroom where there wasn’t one before, should you go with a walk-in shower or the tub/shower combination? I think the answer is clear: get rid of the existing tub (in the case of a remodel) and go for the walk-in shower. If you already have a tub somewhere else in your home, this decision is a ‘slam-dunk’. Why would you ever need more than one tub in your home?  In my experience of over 16 years in residential real estate (I actually do talk to people about these things), adults don’t take that many baths. Unless you have several very young children in your home who all need baths at the same time, don’t hesitate to convert one tub/shower combo to a walk-in shower.

The tougher question is what to do if you are renovating the only bathroom in your home and there is not enough space for both a walk-in shower and a tub. Here again, I think the walk-in shower is the answer.  Many people’s biggest concern is about resale. “If I don’t have a tub, won’t that hurt resale?” The answer is ‘no, you will lose some buyers, but you will gain more.’ Those people who just have to have a bathtub won’t buy your place, but the “wow factor” that your walk-in shower creates will substantially help your resale. Even those who thought they had to have a bathtub, may easily change their minds when they see your beautiful walk-in shower.

Why a walk-in shower is just better:

  1. More room in the shower generally.  The sloped walls and thick sides of most tubs make the actual floor space of a tub relatively small compared with a walk-in shower that occupies the same floor space.  With more floor space in the shower it is easier to make room for two!
  2. Tiled walk-ins can be fit into oddly shaped areas or areas too small for a tub.  If you take out your tub, you might be able to make room for a small walk-in shower and a new linen closet.
  3. They are easier and safer to get in and out of – no side wall to step over.
  4. Not as dangerous.  Cast iron, porcelain, and fiberglass tubs are slippery. Most walk-ins have tiled floors which are generally less slippery.  Look for tiles made out of materials that are known to be less slippery.
  5. They can easily be made to look great with glass doors and good tile work.  You can put glass doors on a tub, and nice tile as your tub surround, but it never looks as good as it does without the tub.
  6. Less expensive and a wider choice of great looking fixtures than the tub/shower combination fixtures.  As I noted in my last post, there is a wider choice of fixtures when the fixture doesn’t have to divert the water between the tub and the shower (tub/shower diverters).
  7. No shower curtain.  I know they make pretty ones but there is a big downside.  They are highly susceptible to mold, they don’t stay in place easily, and they just always seem to be in the way.

Tell me what you think!
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