What really happened this spring in the real estate market?

inventorySo much has been written about what happened this spring. Most of it is about prices going up, bidding wars and the lack of inventory. Now that the summer is a few months behind us, and most properties that went under agreement by the end of the summer have closed, we can look at what actually happened. I have analyzed the numbers that I think matter most.

Downtown
An analysis of the closed sales of all the more upscale downtown Boston neighborhoods, from Charlestown to South Boston to Jamaica Plain, show that the median price of a residential home, including condominiums, single families and multi-families, rose about 10% in 2013 from the same time in 2012. In 2012 it was up about 6% from 2011. The recent figures are substantial, but not mind-boggling. The mind-boggling numbers are the average “days-on-market” statistics. In 2011, average days-on-market was 97. That figure fell 17% to 76 days in 2012, and then fell another 47% to 40 days in 2013. Surprisingly, the inventory has been fairly consistent. The number of homes sold fell 20% from 2011 to 2012 but then stayed about even for 2013.

Cambridge
Cambridge’s value numbers are more dramatic. Up 6% from 2011 to 2012, and then up another 17% from 2012 to 2013. Days on market fell 28% from 72 in 2011 to 52 in 2012, and then another 35% in 2013 to 34. I would consider this number for days on market in the ‘mind boggling’ category.

Brookline
Brookline’s value numbers are quite different. Values actually fell about 1.5% from 2011 to 2012, and then rose 14% from 2012 to 2013. dns database Days on market fell about 27% from 82 in 2011 to 60 in 2012, and then another 38% to 37 in 2013. Here again, the days on market falls in the “mind boggling’ category.

High End Suburban snapshot (Lexington, Wellesley, Weston, Winchester)
I thought it would be interesting to look at the numbers of these 4 “high-end” suburbs considered together. Here is what I found: prices increased 2% from 2011 to 2012, and then went up 13% in 2013. Days on market stayed flat at 107 from 2011 to 2012, but decreased by 35% to 70 for 2013.

All in all, it was one hell of a spring.

Real Estate Market Gone Nuts!

After 18 years selling residential real estate I thought I had seen it all, or at least most of it. During the spring market this year I received the most offers I have ever received on a listing, 4 times in a row. The first was a 2-family in West Roxbury. Listed at $469,000, we scheduled a public open house for Sunday, and indicated that offers were due the coming Tuesday night. We had 60 people at the open house, received 12 offers, and are scheduled to close soon for well into the mid $500s. The winning bidder had no mortgage contingency. Next was a very cute and somewhat diminutive house in Natick listed at $359,000. It looked great, we had over 50 people come to the open house, received 9 offers, and sold it for $378,000 after deducting a fairly big sum for a failing porch. The third was a very nice, but dated, 2+bd/1 ½ bath condo in Cambridge priced at $549,000. This time we received 8 offers, with the winning bidder willing to pay a bit over $600,000 and no mortgage contingency. The last one was a mint condition 2bd/2 bath condominium in Allston/Brighton with garage parking built in 2007 and priced at $479,00. We only received 5 offers this time and are selling it for around $500,000.

If you have read the news or talked to other people in the industry I am sure you know that this kind of thing has been happening all the time and is continuing to happen. So what’s going on? I think there are 2 main reasons for the feeding frenzy of this recent spring market. The first and foremost is low inventory. Take a look at this graph showing the inventory  for the condominium market of the Back Bay, South End, and Beacon Hill combined. Other highly desirable neighborhoods around Boston  have similar statistics.

boston-real-estate

The decline year over year from 2012 to 2013 reaches as high as about 33%. Going back 2 years, the inventory is down in the range of 45-50%. In short, inventory has been declining for some time.  This year interest rates also hit an historical low at the beginning of the year.  See below.

US 30 Year Mortgage Rate Chart

US 30 Year Mortgage Rate data by YCharts

I think it is fair to conclude that this spring there was the widespread perception that interest rates were probably as low as they would ever go. This made borrowing  inexpensive, and naturally increased the impetus for people to want to buy homes. The lowest rates ever, combined with the widespread knowledge that inventory was low, created a perfect storm of high demand and low supply. The result has been the consistent scenario of multiple offers and prices shooting up so widespread this past spring. Now with interest rates going up, it will be interesting to see what happens this summer and fall.

Cash is King, but Maybe It Shouldn’t Be

cash-offerWith the recent, and drastic, heating up of the real estate market in the Boston area, buyers in multiple bid situations are again making “cash” offers. Just recently, I had a couple make a very strong offer on a fantastic single family home in Lexington. Like most nice homes in good suburbs, it had just gone on the market and there were multiple offers. My buyers ultimately lost out to other buyers who submitted a “cash” offer. In practical terms, the winning bidders made an offer with no mortgage contingency. It doesn’t necessarily mean that those buyers had ready access to all the funds necessary to close on the property without a mortgage. It only means that they were willing to risk their deposit if they couldn’t come up with the funds at closing. My experience is that even buyers who forgo mortgage contingencies still plan to get a mortgage. Rates are at historic lows and the interest, up to a mortgage of $1.1M, is tax-deductible. In addition, I believe that most buyers who have easy access to that much cash are probably buying more expensive property. So where does this leave responsible buyers (and their agents) who don’t want to take the risk of losing a significant deposit?

I think the phenomenon is simply an expression of buyer desperation. Buyers that waive the mortgage contingency may have lost several bidding wars, and are looking for an advantage. I assert, however, that an offer from a pre-qualified buyer who is also “well-qualified” is not significantly better than a “cash” offer.  Sellers should only prefer the cash offer if the price and other terms are also better than an offer from a strong buyer with a mortgage contingency. Cash offers are genuinely stronger in transactions where getting financing is actually difficult, like commercial properties and multi-unit investment properties. Standard single family homes and condos are simply not that hard to finance.* Buyers with good credit, nothing to sell, and a job are going to get financing. The seller should focus more on the offering price and possible inspection issues. Deals fall apart over inspection issues when buyers are not properly prepared for an inspection and then get scared off by something major that they weren’t aware of before they bid on the property. Deals rarely fall apart after a purchase and sale agreement is signed and the buyers then fail to get financing.

Buyer should never waive a mortgage contingency unless they are really prepared to pay cash. It is simply too big a price to pay even for a small risk. At the same time, I would recommend that sellers only place a very small value on the lack of a mortgage contingency. At the closing, the money is green no matter where it comes from and the goal is to sell the property, not keep the deposit.

Next Up: what buyers can do with regards to the other terms to make an offer as attractive as possible.

*It may be important to inquire as to a buyer’s ability and willingness to put down more money in the event the property does not appraise at the selling price.  This is a real risk in the current market of quickly increasing prices.

The 2012 Results Are In And Uncertainty Lies Ahead

2012-2013-boston-real-estatelThe number of single family homes sold in Massachusetts last year rose by 18.4% compared to 2011, and the median price point rose 1.8%. The number of condominium sales rose 25% and the median price went up 2.6%. For the Greater Boston Area, the numbers were even better.  The single family median home price went up 6.8%, and for condominiums it was up 10.3%. With numbers like these, it is clear that the market has hit bottom and values are recovering. In addition, towards the end of the year the numbers were even stronger, with December posting the 2nd highest number of sales on record in Greater Boston for a December.

At the same time, the rental market is also experiencing a boom. Rents in the Boston area began to show signs of upward movement last year. This year, the rental market is off to a very strong start and I believe that we will see a further increase in rents. A rental agent I work with recently remarked to me that this kind of market “only comes around about once every 15 years.”

The immediate cause of the upward pressure on prices in the local housing market is the pronounced lack of sales inventory. Based on MLS data, the early February residential sales inventory for the downtown Boston neighborhoods for the past few years is as follows:

2010: 1185

2011: 987

2012: 798

2013: 417

Statistically, the situation is similar in most of eastern Massachusetts.  Almost all the real estate agents that I speak with regularly report that demand is substantial, and the “squeeze” is creating a situation where prices are rising fast.  There is no consensus, however, as to the reason for the dramatic reduction in inventory. In my opinion, we are in a market-wide catch-22 “gridlock” situation. Those potential sellers who would like to move locally don’t see much on the market to buy. Without the confidence that they can find a new place, they won’t  put their house on the market. Simply put, it isn’t a good time to sell because there is nowhere to go. The only people putting their homes on the market are those who are truly under real pressure to move. As the spring market is still just getting started, however, the situation may straighten itself out. On the other hand, it may not and we could just continue to see tight inventory leading to higher prices. Either way, we will find out.

Take a look at this month’s Keller Williams video newsletter

New Rental Housing Rights for Victims of Abuse in Massachusetts

domestic-violenceAs I have recently written about landlord/tenant issues in Massachusetts, I thought it apropos to discuss a new domestic violence law that directly affects landlords. Just last month, Massachusetts enacted a new law that gives victims of domestic violence a fairly broad right to break their leases and have the landlord change their locks. The important provisions of the new law are as follows:

  • In order to break a lease, victims are required to provide notice to landlords that they were subject to a sexual assault or rape or under imminent threat of same within three (3) months of the incident.
  • Landlords may request supporting documentation such as a police report or restraining order (which they must keep confidential).
  • Provided the tenant or co-tenant victim provides the proper notice, she can terminate her lease and be relieved of financial liability to the landlord for the remainder of the rental period. The landlord must return any last month’s rent and security deposit.
  • Victims of sexual assault or stalking may require that the landlord change the unit’s locks within 48 hours and at the tenant’s expense. If the landlord fails to act, the tenant may change the locks herself.
  • If the perpetrator of the sex crime or threat is a household member (i.e., spouse/boyfriend), the landlord may authorize changing the locks and withholding the new key from the perpetrator.
  • Landlords who make a good faith attempt to comply with the new law, and do not give a new key to the alleged perpetrator, are generally absolved from liability to the perpetrator for not providing a key.
  • Noncompliance with the new law can result in damages against the landlord equal to 3x the rental amount, plus payment of the tenant’s legal fees, which may be set off against any unpaid rent.

The bill, as finally passed, was signed off by both tenant and landlord industry groups after several years of debate. It is clearly a step forward for victims of abuse. If you are a victim of domestic abuse and you have to leave your apartment, not violating your lease is one less thing you have to worry about.  It also gives landlords a way to deal with a request by a tenant to change the locks in order to keep another tenant out.  Before this law, landlords faced with a request by a tenant to change the locks in order to keep another tenant out faced a difficult situation.  Property owners now have a clearer path to navigate a difficult situation and help a victim of abuse. It is also, as a landlord, one more thing you need know.  A link to the new Massachusetts domestic violence law can be found here. 

This article is a slightly modified version of a January 13, 2013 post by Rich Vetstein on 1/13 on The Mass. Real Estate Blog and posted with his permission. Rich writes on a variety of subjects and I highly recommend you check him out!

In the electronic age, when is a deal a deal?

esignatures-real-estateMassachusetts courts have been grappling with the question of “when is a deal a deal” for a long time. Most communication in real estate is now done via email and other electronic means. It was just a matter of time before a court was faced with whether and to what extent emails, and electronic signatures constitute a binding and enforceable agreement to purchase and sell real estate.

Don’t real estate deals need to be in writing?

The Statute of Frauds is the genesis of the saying “always get it in writing.” The ancient law, originating in England, provides that all real estate contracts must be in writing signed by the party (or agent) to be charged. In the old days, application of the Statute was quite simple. If there wasn’t a written agreement signed in ink, there was no binding deal. Now, email makes it much more complicated.

The UETA
In 2004, Massachusetts adopted the Massachusetts Uniform Electronic Transactions Act (UETA), which provides that parties to a real estate transaction may consent to conduct the transaction electronically via email or electronic signature technology if they use such technology in their dealings (which everybody does these days). The UETA requires some form of electronic signature.  Just what exactly constitutes an electronic signature has not yet been fully determined by the courts. In a recent Superior Court case, Feldberg v. Coxall (May 22, 2012),  the judge ruled that an email signature block or even the “from” portion of the email could constitute a valid electronic signature. Accordingly, the judge found that the buyer would at least have the opportunity to make a case that a binding deal had been reached, despite the seller refusing to sign the hard copy offer. Email signature technology in the residential real estate business

Many real estate agents in Massachusetts still work with hard copy contracts signed in ink, hard copies of contracts,  or, at best, electronic copies (PDFs).  I expect this practice will wane. There are a variety of free Internet services that enable you to sign documents electronically. Check out DocuSign.com (which I was able to register for and use in minutes), e-signlive.com, or rightsignature.com. My office of Keller Williams recently started accepting electronic signatures and takes it one step further by using a company called Dotloop. With this system, all the parties to a transaction can register for access to a common electronic file cabinet. Any party can enter a password to access and electronically sign a document.

A deal is still a deal in Massachusetts, but a signature is not what it used to be.

This article is a modified version of the article “Think Before You Hit Send: Emails May Constitute Binding Real Estate Agreement Without Signed Offer.” Many thanks to Attorney Vetstein for allowing me to use his article.  The Mass. Real Estate Law Blog is absolutely one of the best out there.

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A Different Type Of Tear-Down: Court Orders Million Dollar Marblehead Manse Demolished For Zoning Violation

One Very Expensive Lesson

This is a human interest story that contains a good reminder for those of us who often believe that when it comes to dealing with certain authorities, it is better to ask for forgiveness than permission. In this case, that strategy proved disasterous. I have posted it here courtesy of Attorney Marc Canner’s and Attorney Rich Vestein’s Massachusetts Real Estate Law Blog.

marblehead-home-teardownAfter a 16 year long saga, wealthy Marblehead mansion owner Wayne Johnson’s battle to save his house from a court-ordered wrecking ball has come to an end. The underlying legal saga is convoluted and complicated, but the end result was swift and destructive — the million dollar mansion is now rubble.

Johnson’s battle started in 1995 when he recorded a plan dividing his land into two lots. One lot contained an existing single-family dwelling. The second lot contained a garage.johnson-tear-down The house lot complied with all zoning dimensional requirements, but the garage lot didn’t comply with lot width requirements. The Building Inspector incorrectly determined that the garage lot complied with all applicable zoning requirements.

Johnson’s neighbors appealed the Building Inspector’s decision, arguing that the new house would greatly diminish their valuable ocean views. The local zoning board allowed the issuance of a building permit. After the building permit issued, the plaintiffs filed an appeal in Land Court and asked for an injunction to prevent construction on the garage lot. The Land Court judge warned Johnson that proceeding with construction was at his peril. In a decision by another judge in May, 2000, the court ordered the building permit to be revoked. However, the court ruled that the house could remain in place while Johnson attempted to obtain appropriate zoning relief.

Johnson, however, was unable to obtain zoning relief. After several unsuccessful appeals, the Land Court ordered Johnson to remove the house by October 4, 2010. Johnson failed to comply with that order, and the neighbors attempted to hold Johnson in contempt. With the threat of contempt and possible jail looming, Johnson finally threw in the towel.

The Land Court ruling can be read here:
Schey v. Johnson

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More Real Estate Eye Candy

I fully intend to blog on some more serious subjects other than just real estate “eye candy,” but, I couldn’t help but comment on another ultra-high-end property that just hit the market today.  I am speaking, of course, about the Penthouse atop the Albert A. Pope building at 221 Columbus Ave.  This is the building developed by Paul Roiff in the late 1990s. The Penthouse built on the roof, which you have probably seen from the Mass. Pike, is his personal residence. similar sites It is now on the market for the first time (a mere $7.2M).  The restaurant Mistral is on the street level. Check it out:

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A Peek at the Ultra High-End

Hi. Welcome to my new blog. If you are reading this you are also reading the very first entry.

Did you happen to read the Boston Globe on Friday July 8th? You might have caught the front page article entitled “What price luxury.” See the Boston.com article here. In a nut shell, the 6,829 square foot Penthouse at the Mandarin on Boylston Street in the Back Bay just sold for $13.2M (Hey you do get 4 parking spaces for your $10,000+ per month condo fee, and 3000 sqft of deck space). The sellers paid about $13.1M about 3 years ago, and never even moved in. secure server . Interestingly, these same sellers put it on the market for $16.99M and it took 32 months for it to sell.

This appears to me to be the most expensive condominium ever sold in the city of Boston. Second Place goes to another Mandarin unit that recently sold for $12.2M and 3rd place to a Penthouse Unit at 51 Comm. Ave. that sold last year for $10.8M. That unit took 4 years to sell. Currently there two other off-the-charts Penthouses available. One at the new Clarendon for $6.75M and the other at the Four Seasons for $8M. If you’re really interested in the Clarendon unit, ask me about as I saw it a couple of weeks ago.

New York has had $10M+ apartments for a long time so why not Boston? I don’t think it says too much about the real estate market in general. One, it means that Boston is attracting some of the super rich. That is good as it helps maintain Boston’s reputation as a world class city. And two, no matter what the price range, overpricing your property is still a bad strategy.

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